Saturday, June 22, 2013

Nassim Nicholas Taleb once made a distinction between those in professions that are relatively stable ("Mediocristan") versus those that can be volatile ("Extremistan"). His point, broadly summarized, was that while a baker could expect gains proportional to the effort put into the work, someone like a Wall Street trader could find himself gaining and losing millions within a single trading day for reasons completely unrelated to his skills. 

There are many types of work out there where this applies. In the recording industry, the popularity of a song could depend on so many factors outside the artist's singing skill. In acting, consummate chameleons rub elbows with purveyors of cheap fare. Everything takes a second seat to the question of whether the audience likes you.

In Extremistan survivorship bias lives and breeds. How many people out there go follow their dreams in these professions every year, and of these how many are able to derive a good living off of it? For the winners, dreams do come true - but for the losers, they don't even register. 

I think it's the constant risk of going belly-up that prompts companies to become so restrictive with their talents. In K-pop companies for example, the contracts can be positively draconian while the training is extremely rigorous



Check out the video above at 4:22. The chart shows an Internet ranking of K-pop idol groups. Out of so many groups at the time of the airing of this program, only 16 can be said to have a hold in people's minds. And of those sixteen, only two are at the very top. This ranking is obviously very volatile, but the top groups are very comfortable in their position. For the others, they have to hustle because the competition is very fierce and tomorrow they could slide down from their current position. It's not a very objective example, but for illustrative purposes I think it serves the purpose.

Why should we care? Because when people are in desperate situations where they don't know what to do to get ahead, they end up willing to do anything to get ahead. Like getting minors to work in conditions that would be unacceptable in other countries. Or getting them to be of the mindset that doing stuff like this is appropriate.

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